ARI’s 2019 Supply Chain Forecast Sunny with a Significant Chance of SUVs

Over the last decade, the automotive industry has experienced a significant shift in vehicle preferences as both consumers and organizations show increasing interest in CUVs/SUVs compared to sedans. While sedans will always be a part of OEM line-ups, households, and fleets, the CUV/SUV continues to rapidly gain popularity for both personal and commercial applications.

Shift in the Vehicle Value Proposition

The financial gap between CUVs/SUVs and sedans has narrowed considerably in terms of initial purchase price and total cost of ownership. Decreasing fuel prices, increasing fuel efficiency, combined with a meager 1.5% increase in maintenance costs compared to sedans makes the overall economics much more attractive for CUVs/SUVs. Consumers and businesses alike are taking notice of the additional space, comfort, and versatility that CUVs/SUVs offer, making for a very compelling value proposition.

OEMs on Board for Change

The trend is driving product changes at the manufacturer level. One manufacturer has decided to eliminate their line of sedans over the next few model years and focus more on SUVs and crossovers while another is slowing production and closing some of their facilities currently producing sedans. The declining demand and potentially diminishing supply for sedans is affecting the percentage of shares for van, full-size, mid-size and compact cars.

ARI’s Ordering Predictions

This shift in vehicle preference is affecting the fleet world as well. ARI’s Vehicle Supply Chain team continues to observe an increase in CUV/SUV orders and specification requests. Between 2000 and now there has been a shift in car vs. SUV orders. Years 2000 to 2009 showed a higher average of car purchases than SUVs; however, the last eight years the percentage of car orders has decreased while SUV orders have increased by approximately five percent.